I’ve written a lot about Cogent over the past few years.  It’s been the target of significant investment research and a sizable position in Recurve’s portfolio for several years.  It has looked like quite a bad mistake to this point.  It proves yet again that effort does not lead to predictable output in the investment business.  The company is at a very interesting juncture, so I thought I’d share my thoughts on how things may evolve from here.

In this Insight we explore whether it’s optimal to invest early or to invest after we are more certain of critical fundamental outcomes.