Cogent Communications - The Wavelength Opportunity
This post is about optical transport services, a specific and technical part of wireline telecom that is not well known to most investors, but is critical network infrastructure for cloud infrastructure providers (AMZN, GOOG, MSFT), AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.), content companies, and other cable/telco providers (CMCSA, CHTR, etc.).
The Stock-Picking Process
What unfolds in the future, relative to embedded expectations, will dictate future performance. The longer our investment horizon, the more likely it is that performance will roughly equate to growth in free cash flow per share. A lot of other factors seem important in the short term (economic cycle, geopolitical events, etc.), but their impacts diminish relative to growth in free cash flow per share as we extend the horizon. Ultimately, the approach should simplify to owning companies that you’d want to own privately on a long-term basis, through all the twists and turns of the global economy.
Carvana - A Vertically Integrated Powerhouse
In this post, we will use Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) as the subject of a study on how vertical integration can create sustainable competitive advantages.
Why Amazon’s AWS Revenue Slowdown is Good for Long-Term Returns: Understanding the Impact on AMZN, MSFT, and GOOG
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) recently reported AWS revenue growth of 12%, a far cry from its growth rates 2-3 years ago and its historic growth rates. In this post, we will walk through why we believe the short-term slowdown in the cloud computing industry is a positive indicator for future revenue growth and profitability for the cloud computing industry, especially Amazon but also Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG).
Insights on Restoration Hardware’s Massive Stock Buyback
Let's dive into the buzz around RH (NYSE: RH), a portfolio company better known as Restoration Hardware, a leading high-end furniture store that has recently made headlines by repurchasing nearly 3.7 million shares in June and July. With a track record of savvy capital allocation, RH's massive buyback spree is worth exploring. In this post, we will unpack their distinctive approach to stock buybacks, compare their strategy with other market leaders, and consider the implications of their latest big move.
What Michael Jordan and Ted Sarandos Teach us About Executive Compensation
My wife and I watched the new movie "Air" on Amazon Prime Video (highly recommended) which tells the story of how Nike landed Michael Jordan as a client and beat out Adidas and Converse. The final clause that Michael's mother, Deloris, demanded of Nike was that Michael receive a royalty on all Jordan-branded products in Nike's portfolio. This deal ultimately created a massive win-win for both Nike and Michael Jordan, and it catapulted MJ into the owner's box of the sport he dominated - an outcome that should be celebrated. He added much more value to the NBA and to Nike than he extracted - well beyond his playing years - and he got to participate in that significant value creation. It's capitalism at its best.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings - Supply and Demand for the Ocean Cruise Market
We analyze the supply and demand characteristics of the global cruise market, a sector with long-term, healthy growth.
Brunello Cucinelli - A Study of the Cashmere Supply Chain
Ever wonder why cashmere sweaters cost so much? Read our latest insight to learn more about the cashmere supply chain.
Cogent Communications - Sprint Wireline Acquisition Closed
“When we put all these pieces together with the fact that Cogent has not issued equity, in fact, has bought back equity since being public, we should be in a position to be producing better than $9 a share of free cash, up from the $2 a share that we're producing today.”